Thursday, April 16

Daniella


Here is Daniella, whose identical twin Sophia is in Eitan's classroom. I call the twins "Daniella-Sophia" to avoid the inevitable certainty that a 50-50 guess will end up wrong. Her middle-teeth are growing in, which I remark upon while dropping Eitan and Madeleine at football-camp. Marcus, meanwhile, returns to Seattle via Tucson, via Dulles, via JFK .. I don't know how he does it, frankly. His stop-over in New York nine-hours so he will visit Katie, God bless him.

And here is some sobering news from my industry: (that totally discredited organistation piece-of-shit rating entity) Standard & Poors reports that the number of Western European companies that defaulted on debt repayments last year was over three times more than in '07, with private equity-backed businesses making up the vast majority. Of the 34 defaulting companies on the agency’s database in 2008, 27 – or 79% – were financial sponsor-backed. S&P further estimates that up to 29% of European speculative-grade companies – those rated BB+ or lower – could default by the end of 2010. I know Obama has indicated "glimmers of hope" but I just don't see it yet. Worse, TARP depleted on the shakiest US gambling houses and now the real clearing-out begins next month when Uncle Sam ranks US banks. Until we are ready to let bad-institutions fail, and wipe out unsecured creditors, we are wasting our time awaiting the inevitable. The problem, of course, this path politically unsavory but it is absurd for tax payers to continue to be lowest on the capital structure.